Selected work
Where analysis steers decisions, not just dashboards.
Examples by sector
What does a scenario analysis look like in practice? Fictional cases using public sector data.
Construction
Tender risk on a utility project
A contractor bids €7.8M on a project estimated at €7.4M. The simulation shows a 55% chance of profit. With a 5% risk surcharge, that becomes 81%. A single number hides the distribution behind it.
"What's our price?" → "What's the probability we lose money on this?"
Building services
Bid/no-bid on a construction project
An installation company (60 technicians) considers a €1.2M E&M project. The project margin is positive, but in 42% of scenarios it causes delays on existing projects. The real question is the portfolio impact.
"Can we handle this project?" → "What does this project cost us on the rest of the portfolio?"
Construction
Delay risk in housing projects
An 80-unit housing project runs 5 weeks late on groundwork. At delivery, that becomes 13 weeks. Delays don't add up, they multiply. The question is at what point intervention is cheaper than waiting.
"It's running a week late" → "At what point does waiting cost more than intervening?"
Deep dives
Extended technical deep dives with full methodology.
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